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Forecast Summary 2016

Key Highlights:

  • UK RGDP is expected to grow by 2.44% in 2016. However, the forecast variance is 0.41% across models.

  • UK Inflation is expected to be 1.91% in 2016. However, the forecast variance is 1.25 across models.

  • In comparison, UK Treasury Independent Consensus Forecasts are 2.4% and 2.5% for UK RGDP and Inflation.

Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016

 

  RGDP Growth Inflation
  Mean Dispersion Mean Dispersion
Autoregr. Moving Average 2.28 [-1.8 - 6.4] 2.96 [-7.9 - 13.5]
TVP Factor Augmented VAR 2.16 [-5.5 - 10.1] 2.16 [-5.1 - 9.6]
Bayesian VAR 2.91 [-0.3 - 6.2] 1.74 [-6.1 - 9.6]
Fin. Threshold VAR 3.19 [0 - 6.2] 1.59 [-5.8 - 9.2]
Large Bayesian VAR 2.13 [-0.9 - 5.1] 1.78 [-5.7 - 9.3]
Fin. Smooth Transition VAR 2.44 [-0.6 - 5.5] 4.70 [-3.1 - 12.4]
Threshold VAR 3.02 [-0.5 - 6.2] 0.93 [-7.1 - 8.7]
Smooth Transition VAR 2.97 [-0.7 - 6.5] 1.96 [-10 - 13.8]
DSGE 0.61 [-24.3 - 25.6] -0.61 [-12.4 - 11.2]
TVP VAR 2.81 [0.1 - 5.5] 1.76 [-1.8 - 5.2]
Markov Switching VAR 2.51 [0.4 - 4.6] 2.63 [-2.3 - 7.6]
Mixed Frequency VAR 1.80 [-2.2 - 5.7] 2.05 [-4 - 8]
Unobserved Component SV 2.29 [-1 - 5.6] 1.25 [-3.3 - 5.7]
BVAR Common SV 2.65 [0.9 - 4.4] 2.13 [-1.1 - 5.3]
BVAR t Disturbances 2.88 [0.3 - 5.5] 1.69 [-4 - 7.4]
Average 2.44   1.91  
Highest 3.19   4.70  
Lowest 0.61   -0.61  
Variance 0.41   1.25  
Average: Average of forecasts across Cremfi Forecast. Project Models
Dispersion: 10% - 90% Quantiles of Forecast Distribution. TVP: Time Varying Parameter,
DSGE: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, VAR: Vector Autoregressive, SV: Stochastic Volatility
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