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Forecast Summary 2017

Key Highlights:

  • UK RGDP is expected to grow by 2.09% in 2017. However, the forecast variance is 0.68% across models.
  • UK Inflation is expected to be 1.83% in 2017. However, the forecast variance is 1.09 across models.
  • In comparison, UK Treasury Independent Consensus Forecasts are 2.1% and 2.9% for UK RGDP and Inflation.

Forecasts for the UK Economy 2017

  RGDP Growth Inflation
  Mean Dispersion Mean Dispersion
Autoregr. Moving Average 2.11 [-1.5 - 5.6] 3.65 [-7.7 - 14.2]
TVP Factor Augmented VAR 2.29 [0 - 4.7] 1.67 [-1.1 - 4.4]
Bayesian VAR 2.84 [-0.1 - 5.8] 2.09 [-6 - 10.1]
Fin. Threshold VAR 2.25 [-1.7 - 5.6] 1.47 [-8 - 10.8]
Large Bayesian VAR 1.67 [-1 - 4.4] 2.59 [-5.4 - 10.4]
Fin. Smooth Transition VAR 1.24 [-1.8 - 4.3] 1.32 [-6.2 - 8.9]
Threshold VAR 2.63 [-1.1 - 5.7] 2.09 [-6.2 - 10.3]
Smooth Transition VAR 3.27 [-0.7 - 7.2] 1.65 [-13.4 - 16.4]
DSGE 1.00 [-23.4 - 25] -1.07 [-13.2 - 10.9]
TVP VAR 2.28 [1.5 - 3.1] 1.80 [0.7 - 2.8]
Markov Switching VAR 2.59 [1.4 - 3.8] 2.98 [-2.2 - 8]
Mixed Frequency VAR 0.00 [-0.1 - 0.1] 1.98 [-4.3 - 8.2]
Unobserved Component SV 2.06 [0.9 - 3.2] 0.99 [-3.7 - 5.7]
BVAR Common SV 2.52 [0.9 - 4.1] 2.31 [-1.6 - 6.2]
BVAR t Disturbances 2.62 [0.5 - 4.7] 1.90 [-4 - 7.8]
Average 2.09   1.83  
Highest 3.27   3.65  
Lowest 0.00   -1.07  
Variance 0.68   1.09  
Average: Average of forecasts across Cremfi Forecast. Project Models
Dispersion: 10% - 90% Quantiles of Forecast Distribution. TVP: Time Varying Parameter,
DSGE: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, VAR: Vector Autoregressive, SV: Stochastic Volatility
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